Whether in Housing or Investing, There Is Still No Free Lunch
However you measure it, the math hasn’t been working in favor of newer households.
The National Association of Home Builders found that 65% of U.S. households could not afford a median-priced new home in 2026. For those just starting out in life and trying to form their own households, this has meant spending more time in rentals and devoting a greater percentage of their income to housing costs.
Policies have done little to help and sometimes have exacerbated this problem. Consider the Federal Reserve, which had the unenviable task of guiding our monetary and financial systems through an unprecedented economic shutdown last fall. It has the responsibility for managing inflation, but also the responsibility to encourage full employment. These two tasks can often be at odds. To keep unemployment from ballooning post-COVID, the Fed cut interest rates deeply and greatly increased our money supply.
This was the equivalent of putting the pedal to the metal, and as it turned out, it was way too much gas. In the five years from March 2020 through March 2025, the M2 money supply increased 40%, which coincided with home price increases of 50%. The money supply increased much faster than the housing supply over those years, so prices rose. Lower interest rates made borrowing easier, which also tends to drive prices higher, as borrowers could now afford to finance a larger home purchase.Increased government spending through stimulus, tax credits, and subsidies also contributed to inflation.
The point of this is that we are continuously reminded that there is no free lunch. Creating more money without any change in productivity/supply simply means that prices increase. By the way, this applies to investments as well. The excess money that found its way into the housing market has also found its way into the stock market, driving the prices of the most popular companies much faster than their earnings growth.
We would love to have policies that increase the prices of assets (such as homes and stocks) we already own, while keeping the prices of assets we will buy in the future at the same level or lower. But this is a tension – a free lunch we can’t have. We are in a situation where inflation remains elevated and many share prices remain elevated. Both of these are risks to investors, and investors may benefit from focusing on factors within their control, such as maintaining an investment strategy aligned with their objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
This is intended for informational purposes only. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this document serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Savant. Please consult your investment professional regarding your unique situation.